Suchergebnisse

What prompted so many voters in Mexico to abandon the traditional parties and support MORENA and its candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador? This research relies on data from Mexico's National Electoral Study (2018). The results show that support for López Obrador is strongly associated with affective polarization and the perception that the PRI and PAN represented the same political alternative. In turn, retrospective evaluations and ideology were not associated with López Obrador's victory. This research note contributes to our understanding of Mexico's historical elections as well as to the broader literature on the Latin American left. The success of the political left in Mexico is not rooted on voters' programmatic preferences. Similar to the decay of mainstream political parties in other Latin American countries, in 2018, Mexican voters rejected the mainstream political establishment by supporting Lopez Obrador's third bid for the Presidency.

Abstract
Based on the Mexican case, this study finds that voters who report low levels of campaign information are more likely to update their vote intention as election day gets closer. Moreover, in contrast to previous studies which argue that political campaigns mainly persuade voters to support candidates against their precampaign dispositions, this article shows that, by the end of the campaign, most voters support the candidate best aligned with their underlying political predispositions—partisanship and presidential approval. In other words, voters become enlightened. This effect is particularly important among independents, a portion of the electorate understudied by the literature on Latin American political behavior.

This study focuses on a dimension of partisanship overlooked by most comparative studies on campaign effects: individual-level stability, a measure of short-term partisanship. Some voters in young democracies are able to develop partisanship as a screen through which they observe the political world, leading them to interpret new information in a manner that reinforces their political predispositions. However, some voters lack long-term partisan attachments, enabling them to update their party identification as the campaign unfolds. These voters have a harder time reinforcing their precampaign dispositions and are more likely to change their vote intention. The findings suggest that for some voters, partisanship and vote choice are empirically intertwined. ResumenEste estudio se enfoca en una dimensión de la identificación partidista poco estudiada por la mayoría de los estudios comparativos sobre efectos de campañas: estabilidad a nivel individual, como una medida de una identificación partidista de corto plazo. Algunos electores en democracias jóvenes son capaces de desarrollar una identidad partidista que constituye un filtro por el cual se observa el mundo político, haciendo que los individuos interpretan nueva información de una manera que refuerce sus predisposiciones políticas. Sin embargo, algunos votantes no tienen una afinidad partidista de largo plazo, lo que les permite actualizar su identificación partidista a medida que se desarrolla la campaña. Estos votantes tienen mayor dificultad de reforzar sus predisposiciones anteriores a la campaña y tienen una mayor probabilidad de cambiar su intención de voto. Los resultados de este artículo sugieren que, para algunos votantes, la identificación partidista y la intención de voto están empíricamente interrelacionadas.

[EN] Based on data from presidential campaigns and original data from gubernatorial campaigns in Mexico, this paper finds that the proportion of respondents who provide consistent answers to the vote intention questions during the same survey interview increases as the campaign unfolds and interest in the campaign grows. These voters are less likely to connect their vote choice with their political predispositions and have a disproportionate likelihood to change their vote choice throughout the campaign. This gives the impression that campaigns are more consequential than they are, when, in fact, vote shifts are a function of voters' increased motivation to engage in a survey interview.

Political scientists working on clientelism have become interested in the relationships between brokers and the politicians and parties for whom they work. In most of this research, brokers are seen as inherently disloyal and normally act against the interests of their patrons, unless monitoring efforts are enacted. In contrast, we argue that territorial brokers have strong incentives to construct long-term, dependent relationships with their patrons, which diminishes the likelihood of cheating, while their patrons also wish to maintain durable ties with brokers to hold an assured voter base. We argue that politicians prefer brokers who have a good reputation for providing their voters with goods and assuring their votes. Still, sometimes brokers go rogue and cheat on their bosses. This study, which is based on more than fifty in-depth interviews with both local politicians and brokers in Mexico City, examines the conditions under which brokers remain loyal and those that promote cheating. We identify two factors that explain this variation—electoral competitiveness and the level of resource autonomy between brokers and politicians. Non-autonomous brokers working under conditions of low competition tend to have high probabilities of remaining loyal, while independent brokers working under high competitiveness will often resort to cheating.

Summary This article examines the populist activation of the electorate in the 2018 presidential election in Mexico, which requires a number of conditions. On the one hand, voters should feel grievances about the political, economic or social situation in the country. In addition, the capacity of ambitious politicians is needed to make these grievances between the electorate relevant and so voters respond to populist rhetoric to translate their voter into electoral mobilisation. However, unlike other studies, we argue that not all voters are equally mobilised in response to populist rhetoric, even if they have a similar level of populist attitudes. According to the literature on political behaviour, we argue that the partisan identity of voters is a filter of information that makes voters more likely to accept populist rhetoric if consistent with their political predispositions. Conversely, if populist rhetoric contradicts their partisan identity, voters will reject the rhetoric of the populist candidate despite the fact that those voters have a high level of populist attitudes. ; Resumen Este artículo estudia la activación populista del electorado en la elección presidencial de 2018 en México, la cual requiere una serie de condiciones. Por un lado, los votantes deben sentir un agravio sobre la situación política, económica o social en el país. Además, es necesaria la capacidad de políticos ambiciosos para hacer relevantes esos agravios entre el electorado y así los votantes respondan a la retórica populista para traducir su enojo en movilización electoral. Sin embargo, a diferencia de otros estudios, argumentamos que no todos los votantes son movilizados por igual como respuesta a la retórica populista, incluso si registran un nivel similar de actitudes populistas. De acuerdo con la literatura sobre comportamiento político, argumentamos que la identidad partidista de los votantes constituye un filtro de información que hace más probable que los electores acepten la retórica populista si es consistente con sus ...